BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
Management's Discussion and Analysis of
Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Results of Operations

           Net earnings for each of the past three years are disaggregated in the table that follows. Amounts are after deducting minority interests and taxes.

 

-- (dollars in millions) --

 

1998

1997

1996

Insurance segments - underwriting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 171

$ 298

$ 143

Insurance segments - investment income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

731

704

593

Non-Insurance business segments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

389

311

226

Interest expense . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(63)

(67)

(57)

Goodwill amortization and other purchase-accounting-adjustments

(118)

(94)

(70)

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

     167

      45

      49

Earnings before realized investment gain . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1,277

1,197

884

Realized investment gain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  1,553

    704

  1,605

Net earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$2,830

$1,901

$2,489

 

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            The business segment data (Note 15 to Consolidated Financial Statements) should be read in conjunction with this discussion.

Insurance Segments -- Underwriting

           A summary follows of underwriting results from Berkshire's insurance segments for the past three years.

-- (dollars in millions) --

 

1998

1997

1996

Underwriting gain (loss) attributable to:

 

 

 

GEICO Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 269

$ 281

$ 171

Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(21)

128

(8)

Berkshire Hathaway Direct Insurance Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

     17

     52

     59

Pre-tax underwriting gain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

265

461

222

Income taxes and minority interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

     94

   163

     79

Net underwriting gain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 171

$ 298

$ 143

 

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            Berkshire Hathaway engages in both direct insurance and reinsurance of property and casualty risks. In direct insurance activities, Berkshire subsidiaries assume defined portions of the risks of loss from persons or organizations that are directly subject to the risks. In reinsurance activities, Berkshire subsidiaries assume defined portions of similar or dissimilar risks that other insurers or reinsurers have subjected themselves to in their own insuring activities. Berkshire's principal underwriting businesses are: (1) GEICO, which became a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire on January 3, 1996, (2) Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group and (3) Berkshire Hathaway Direct Insurance Group. On December 21, 1998, Berkshire completed its merger with General Re. General Re and its affiliates comprise one of the four largest reinsurance companies in the world. See Note 2 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.

           A significant marketing strategy followed by all these businesses is the maintenance of extraordinary capital strength. Statutory surplus as regards policyholders of Berkshire's insurance businesses increased to approximately $40 billion (excluding General Re Corporation) at December 31, 1998. This superior capital strength creates opportunities, especially with respect to reinsurance activities, to negotiate and enter into contracts of insurance specially designed to meet unique needs of sophisticated insurance and reinsurance buyers. Additional information regarding Berkshire's insurance and reinsurance operations is presented on the following pages.

           GEICO Corporation

           GEICO through its subsidiaries, provides primarily private passenger automobile coverages to insureds in 48 states and the District of Columbia. GEICO policies are marketed mainly by direct response methods in which customers apply for coverage directly to the company over the telephone or through the mail. This is a significant element in GEICO's strategy to be a low-cost provider of such coverages. In 1995, GEICO entered into an agreement with another major insurance provider that over time will allow it to effectively exit the homeowners insurance business which represented a relatively small percentage of GEICO's business.

           GEICO's underwriting results for the past three years are summarized below.

-- (dollars are in millions) --

 

1998

1997

1996

 

Amount

%

Amount

%

Amount

%

Premiums written . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$4,182

 

$3,588

 

$3,122

 

 

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Premiums earned . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$4,033

100.0

$3,482

100.0

$3,092

100.0

Losses and loss expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2,978

73.8

2,630

75.5

2,434

78.7

Underwriting expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

   786

   19.5

   571

   16.4

   487

   15.8

Total losses and expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3,764

93.3

3,201

91.9

2,921

94.5

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Underwriting gain -- pre-tax . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 269

 

$ 281

 

$ 171

 

 

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           As shown in the table above, GEICO's premium volume grew significantly during the last two years. Premiums earned by GEICO in 1998 exceeded amounts earned in 1997 by 15.8% and amounts earned in 1997 surpassed 1996 by 12.6%. The increases in premium volume were attributed to growth in voluntary auto insurance, partially mitigated by premium rate reductions taken in certain states during 1998 and 1997. Such rate reductions were intended to better align premium rates with pricing targets, and will result in lower premiums earned per policy in the future. The growth in voluntary auto premium volume in each of the past two years was also offset by declines in homeowners and residual auto market business. In-force policy growth for GEICO's core preferred-risk auto business was 17.2% in 1998 and 12.8% in 1997. Policy growth in standard and non-standard auto markets was 40.4% in 1998 and 36.6% in 1997. In-force policy growth reflects GEICO's continued marketing efforts and competitive prices. Sales of new voluntary policies increased 44.3% in 1998 as compared to 1997 and followed growth of 47.8% in 1997 as compared to 1996.

           Losses and loss expenses incurred during 1998 were 13.2% greater than amounts incurred during 1997. This followed an 8.1% increase in such costs during 1997 as compared to 1996. The loss and loss expense ratio, a measurement of the portion of earned premiums that were paid or reserved for losses and related claims handling expenses, was 73.8% in 1998, 75.5% in 1997 and 78.7% in 1996. These lower than expected loss and loss expense ratios reflect the declining severity of auto liability claims and generally mild weather conditions. Catastrophe losses added 0.7% to the loss and loss expense ratio in 1998 compared to 0.3% in 1997 and 1.7% in 1996. As a result of GEICO's diminishing homeowners business, risks of weather related catastrophe losses are currently lower than in years prior to 1996.

           Underwriting expenses in 1998 for GEICO's businesses increased $215 million (37.7%) over 1997 and in 1997 increased $84 million (17.2%) over 1996. The increases reflect additional advertising and personnel costs incurred to generate and service the aforementioned in-force policy growth, as well as increased levels of administrative expenses, particularly profit-sharing costs.

           GEICO's underwriting results have been above expectations in recent years and the private passenger auto insurance industry as a whole had generally good results due to favorable claims experience. However, premium rates are subject to downward pressure from competition and through the ordinary rate regulation processes of state insurance departments. The rate reductions taken by GEICO in 1998 were greater than 1997's reductions and will be fully reflected in earned premiums in 1999. GEICO currently anticipates that there will be some further rate reductions in 1999. In addition, while the level of claim costs (including catastrophe losses) in recent years have been relatively low, there is no assurance that these favorable conditions will continue. Accordingly, management expects that GEICO's underwriting profit margins will return to more normal levels as costs increase faster than premiums. Notwithstanding, Berkshire's management believes that GEICO's underwriting results will remain better than industry averages.

 

           Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group

           The Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group underwrites principally excess-of-loss reinsurance coverages for insurers and reinsurers world wide. This Group is believed to be one of the world leaders in providing catastrophe excess-of-loss reinsurance.

           Underwriting results for the past three years are summarized in the following table.

-- (dollars are in millions) --

 

1998

1997

1996

 

Amount

%

Amount

%

Amount

%

Premiums written . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 986

 

$ 955

 

$ 715

 

 

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Premiums earned . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 939

100.0

$ 967

100.0

$ 758

100.0

Losses and loss expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

765

81.5

676

69.9

573

75.6

Underwriting expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

   195

   20.7

   163

   16.9

   193

   25.4

Total losses and expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

   960

102.2

   839

86.8

   766

101.0

 

 

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Underwriting gain (loss) -- pre-tax . . . . . . . . .

$ (21)

 

$ 128

 

$ (8)

 

 

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           Reinsurance premiums earned from catastrophe excess-of-loss policies totaled $286 million in 1998, $310 million in 1997 and $268 million in 1996. Management believes that increased industry capital devoted to this type

of business and the lack of large catastrophic loss events in recent years continues to promote intensifying price competition in the catastrophe reinsurance markets. As a result, there are currently fewer opportunities to write catastrophe reinsurance coverages at acceptable prices. Management anticipates that the level of catastrophe reinsurance business accepted may decline in 1999.

           The catastrophe reinsurance business produced net underwriting gains in 1998 of $155 million as compared to net underwriting gains of $283 million in 1997 and $167 million in 1996. During the 1996-1998 period, there were no truly large catastrophic events. Catastrophe losses incurred were $34 million in 1998, nearly zero in 1997 and $46 million in 1996.

           Berkshire's management continues to believe that, eventually, a large catastrophe event will occur which will produce a significant loss. The Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group's exposure to loss from a single event with respect to in-force policies at year end 1998 is estimated at approximately $600 million after-tax (excludes losses which would likely be incurred by General Re). Accordingly, periodic underwriting results remain subject to extreme volatility. Berkshire's management is willing to accept such volatility provided there is a reasonable prospect of long-term profitability.

           Premiums earned from other property and casualty excess-of-loss and quota-share reinsurance contracts totaled $310 million in 1998, $513 million in 1997 and $485 million in 1996. These contracts often provide considerable amounts of indemnification in exchange for large premiums. Certain of these contracts, which produced annual premiums of approximately $200 million in 1997 and 1996, expired at the end of 1997 and were not renewed in 1998. Other property and casualty reinsurance contracts produced net underwriting losses of approximately $86 million in 1998, $73 million in 1997 and $101 million in 1996. Premiums from these types of reinsurance contracts are often based, in part, on time discounting of estimated loss payments because such payments are expected to occur over lengthy time periods. Estimated claim liabilities are established for financial reporting purposes without recognition of such discounting, thus producing underwriting losses. This business is accepted because of the large amounts of policyholder float that it generates.

           Premiums earned from retroactive reinsurance and structured settlement contracts were $343 million in 1998 and $144 million in 1997. Minor amounts of premiums were earned from such contracts in 1996. These contracts provide excess of loss coverage with respect to past loss events or periodic payments to claimants in connection with settled claims. Underwriting losses occur from such policies as a result of the recurring recognition of time value of money concepts--the amortization of deferred charges re reinsurance assumed and the accretion of discounted structured settlement liabilities. The amortization and accretion charges are reported as losses incurred, and because there is no offsetting premium income, as underwriting losses. Underwriting losses from retroactive reinsurance and structured settlement contracts were $90 million in 1998, $82 million in 1997 and $74 million in 1996.

           Berkshire Hathaway Direct Insurance Group

           The Berkshire Hathaway Direct Insurance Group is comprised of a wide variety of smaller property/casualty businesses. These businesses include: National Indemnity Company's traditional commercial motor vehicle and specialty risk operations; five companies collectively referred to as "homestate" operations that provide primarily standard commercial coverages to insureds in an increasing number of states; Cypress Insurance Company, a provider of workers' compensation insurance in California and other states; Central States Indemnity Company, a provider of credit card credit insurance to individuals nationwide through financial institutions; Kansas Bankers Surety Company, an insurer for primarily small and medium size banks located in the midwest; and Berkshire Hathaway International, a London-based writer of personal and commercial auto insurance.

           Collectively, the Berkshire Hathaway Direct Insurance businesses produced earned premiums of $328 million in 1998, $312 million in 1997 and $268 million in 1996. Increases in premiums earned in 1998 and 1997 were achieved by the homestate, credit card credit, international auto and specialty risk businesses offset by comparative declines in the traditional commercial motor vehicle business. Net underwriting gains attributed to direct insurance activities were $17 million in 1998, $52 million in 1997 and $59 million in 1996. The decline in 1998 underwriting results as compared to 1997 principally derived from the traditional motor vehicle and specialty risk operations.

           General Re

           On December 21, 1998, General Re became a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire upon completion of the merger of the two companies. Berkshire's results of operations in 1998 include the results of General Re for the last ten days of 1998. Although the revenues and operating results of General Re for that ten-day period are not significant to Berkshire for the full year, General Re will have a major impact on Berkshire's results in future periods. For purposes of this discussion, General Re's results for the last ten days of 1998 are included in other sources of earnings.

           General Re and its affiliates operate a global insurance/reinsurance business with operations in the U.S. and 124 other countries around the world. General Re's principal reinsurance operations are internally classified: (1) North American property/casualty, (2) international property/casualty, and (3) global life/health reinsurance.

           North American property/casualty operations underwrite predominantly excess-of-loss reinsurance across various lines of business. The international property/casualty operations write quota-share and excess-of-loss reinsurance for risks throughout the world. The global life/health operations reinsure such risks in North America and throughout the world. The international property/casualty and global life/health businesses are primarily conducted through German-based Cologne Re and its subsidiaries. As of December 31, 1998, General Re, directly and indirectly through a joint venture arrangement, maintained an 82% economic interest in Cologne Re.

           Summarized information regarding General Re's historical pre-tax underwriting results for 1998 and 1997 is presented below.

-- (dollars in millions) --

 

Net premiums earned

Net underwriting gain (loss)

 

1998

1997

1998

1997

North American property/casualty . . . .

$2,708

$3,143

$ (15)

$ 23

International property/casualty . . . . . . .

2,095

2,270

(112)

(55)

Global life/health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

 1,292

1,193

(282)*

   13   

 

$6,095

$6,606

$(409)

$ (19)

 

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* Includes a pre-tax loss of $275 million related to estimated losses incurred by a Cologne Re U.S. based life insurance subsidiary. Such losses were incurred with respect to U.S. workers' compensation reinsurance written through an underwriting facility in the London market.

           General Re's historical pre-tax net investment income in each of the years ending December 31, 1998 and 1997 totaled approximately $1.3 billion. On an after-tax basis, General Re's historical net investment income was about $975 million in both 1998 and 1997.

           Insurance Segments - Investment Income

           Following is a summary of the insurance segments net investment income for the past three years.

(dollars in millions)

 

1998

1997

1996

Investment income before taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$974

$882

$726

Applicable income taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

236

172

128

Applicable minority interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

      7

      6

      5

Investment income after taxes and minority interest . . . . . . . . . . . .

$731

$704

$593

 

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           Investment income of the insurance businesses in 1998 exceeded amounts earned in 1997 by $92 million (10.4%) and 1997 income earned exceeded 1996 by $156 million (21.5%). Investment income earned in 1998 reflects increased taxable interest income, partially offset by lower tax-exempt interest and dividend income. Dividends earned from the investment in US Airways Group, Inc. ("US Airways") Cumulative Convertible Preferred Stock, including amounts previously in arrears, were $78 million in 1997 and $46 million in 1996. During the first quarter of 1998, Berkshire converted the US Airways preferred shares into common shares of that company.

           Berkshire's insurance businesses continue to generate significant levels of investment income from maintaining large levels of invested assets. The acquisition of General Re at the end of 1998 increased invested assets by about $25 billion. Increases in invested assets in recent years also derive from reinvested earnings and additional capital contributions, as well as increases in the amounts of "float". Reinvested earnings and capital contributions over the three year period ending December 31, 1998 were approximately $6 billion. Float represents the sum of unpaid losses and loss expenses, unearned premiums, and other liabilities to policyholders less the aggregate of premiums and reinsurance balances receivable, deferred policy acquisition costs, deferred charges re reinsurance assumed and related prepaid income taxes. Total float was approximately $22.8 billion at year end 1998 which includes $14.9 billion assumed as a result of the General Re acquisition.

           Income tax expense as a percentage of investment income before taxes was 24.2% in 1998, 19.5% in 1997 and 17.6% in 1996. Investment income in each of these years includes substantial amounts of interest on municipal obligations and dividends from equity investments that are effectively taxed at rates below the full statutory federal rate.

           Non-Insurance Business Segments

A summary follows of results to Berkshire from these identified business segments for the past three years.

-- (dollars in millions) --

 

1998

1997

1996

 

Amount

%

Amount

%

Amount

%

Revenues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 4,458

100

$ 3,404

100

$ 2,888

100

Cost and expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

 3,823

   86

 2,892

   85

 2,528

   88

Operating profit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

635

14

512

15

360

12

Income taxes and minority interest . . . . . . . . . . . . .

   246

   5

   201

   6

   134

   4

Contribution to net earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 389

9

$ 311

9

$ 226

8

 

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           A comparison of revenues and operating profits between 1998, 1997 and 1996 for each of the eight identifiable non-insurance business segments follows.

-- (dollars in millions) --

Operating Profit

 

Revenues

Operating Profits

as a % of Revenues

Segment

1998

1997

1996

 

1998

1997

1996

 

1998

1997

1996

Buffalo News . . . . . . . . .

$ 157

$ 156

$ 154

 

$ 53

$ 56

$ 50

 

34

36

32

Flight Services . . . . . . . .

858

411

8

 

181

140

3

 

21

34

37

Home Furnishings . . . . .

793

667

587

 

72

57

44

 

9

9

8

International Dairy Queen

420

--

--

 

58

--

--

 

14

--

--

Jewelry . . . . . . . . . . . . .

440

398

392

 

39

32

28

 

9

8

7

Scott Fetzer Companies .

1,002

961

938

 

137

119

122

 

14

12

13

See's Candies . . . . . . . . .

288

269

249

 

62

59

52

 

22

22

21

Shoe Group . . . . . . . . . .

   500

   542

   560

 

    33

    49

    61

 

7

9

11

 

$4,458

$3,404

$2,888

 

$635

$512

$360

 

 

 

 

 

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           1998 compared to 1997

           Revenues from the eight identifiable non-insurance business segments of $4,458 million in 1998 increased $1,054 million (31.0%) from the prior year. The aggregate operating profits from these business segments of $635 million in 1998 increased $123 million (24.0%). The acquisitions of International Dairy Queen ("Dairy Queen") at the beginning of 1998 and Executive Jet during August, 1998 account for a significant portion of the comparative increases. The following is a discussion of other significant matters impacting comparative results for each of the non-insurance business segments.

           Buffalo News

           The Buffalo News revenues were relatively unchanged in 1998 as compared to 1997. Operating profits in 1998 of $53 million decreased $3 million (5.4%) from the comparable 1997 amount. Much of the decrease arose as a result of a special non recurring charge related to workers' compensation insurance. Without the charge, operating profits in 1998 would have been comparable to the prior year.

           Flight Services

           This segment includes FlightSafety and Executive Jet. FlightSafety, acquired at the end of 1996, provides high technology training to operators of aircraft and ships. FlightSafety's worldwide clients include corporations, the military and government agencies. On August 7, 1998, Berkshire acquired Executive Jet, the worlds' leading provider of fractional ownership programs for general aviation aircraft. Executive Jet operates the NetJets® fractional ownership program in the United States and Europe. Revenues of this segment increased $447 million (108.8%) over comparable prior year amounts. The acquisition of Executive Jet accounts for about 85% of the overall revenue increase. Operating profits of this segment increased $41 million (29.3%) over comparable prior year amounts. The acquisition of Executive Jet accounts for about half of the overall increase. FlightSafety's operating profits increased significantly over 1997 as a result of continued growth in all areas of its training business.

           Home Furnishings

           This segment is comprised of three separately managed but similar retail home furnishing businesses: Nebraska Furniture Mart ("NFM"), based in Omaha, Nebraska; R.C. Willey Home Furnishings ("Willey"), based in Salt Lake City, Utah; and Star Furniture Company ("Star"), based in Houston, Texas. Berkshire acquired NFM in 1983, Willey in 1995 and Star in 1997. Revenues of this segment increased $126 million (18.9%) as compared to the prior year. Over half of this increase resulted from the acquisition of Star in July 1997. Both NFM and Willey also reported strong increases in revenues in 1998 as compared to 1997. Operating profits of $72 million in 1998 increased $15 million (26.3%) over the comparable prior year amount. Star's inclusion in this segment's results, for the full year of 1998 versus only the last half of 1997, accounts for over half of the comparative increase. The remainder of the increase arose primarily from increased sales and improved margins at NFM and Willey.

           International Dairy Queen

           At the beginning of 1998, Berkshire completed the acquisition of Dairy Queen. Dairy Queen develops, licenses and services a system of approximately 5,900 Dairy Queen stores located throughout the United States, Canada and other foreign countries. Dairy Queen stores feature hamburgers, hot dogs, various dairy desserts and beverages. Dairy Queen also develops, licenses and services other stores and shops operating under the names of Orange Julius and Karmel Korn which feature blended fruit drinks, popcorn and other snacks. Dairy Queen's results for 1998 were in line with management's plan and continued positive results are expected from this business.

           Jewelry

           This segment consists of two separately managed retailers of fine jewelry. Borsheim's operates from a single location in Omaha, Nebraska. Helzberg's Diamonds operates a national chain of retail stores located primarily in malls throughout the United States. Revenues of $440 million increased $42 million (10.6%) and operating profits of $39 million increased $7 million (21.9%) over the comparable prior year amounts. While the revenue increase accounted for much of the increase in operating profits, both of these businesses were able to effectively control operating expenses resulting in improved results.

           Scott Fetzer Companies

           The Scott Fetzer companies are a group of about twenty diverse manufacturing and distribution businesses under common management. Principal businesses in this group of companies sell products under the Kirby (home cleaning systems), Campbell Hausfeld (air compressors, paint sprayers and pressure washers) and World Book (encyclopedias and other educational products) names. Revenues of $1,002 million increased $41 million (4.3%) over the comparable prior year amount. The increase in revenues was primarily due to increases at Campbell Hausfeld somewhat offset by lower World Book revenues. Operating profits of $137 million increased $18 million (15.1%) from the prior year. Increased sales at Campbell Hausfeld along with improved results from World Book's international businesses account for a significant portion of the improved results.

           See's Candies

           See's revenues increased $19 million (7.1%) over comparable prior year amounts. Total pounds of candy sold increased about 3.3% with 3% to 4% increases being achieved both in See's quantity order business as well as its retail stores. Operating profits increased $3 million (5.1%) as compared to the prior year.

           Shoes

           This segment includes H. H. Brown Shoe Company, Inc., Lowell Shoe, Inc. and Dexter Shoe Companies. These businesses manufacture and distribute work, dress, casual and athletic footwear. In addition, over 100 retail shoe stores are included in this segment. Revenues for this segment decreased by $42 million (7.7%) in 1998 as compared to 1997. Operating profits of $33 million in 1998 decreased $16 million (32.7%) from the prior year. The unfavorable results represent a continuation of a trend which began three years ago. Manufacturers such as Brown, Lowell and Dexter are facing reduced demand for their products. Additionally, major retailers are offering promotions to generate sales which is resulting in an ongoing margin squeeze. Management of these businesses is working to align production activity to the reduced sales levels.

           1997 compared to 1996

           Revenues from the non-insurance business segments increased $516 million (17.9%) in 1997 as compared to 1996. Operating profits of $512 million during 1997 increased $152 million (42.2%) from the comparable 1996 amount. The most significant factor which gave rise to the increase in both revenues and operating profits was the acquisition of FlightSafety at the end of 1996. With the exception of the shoe group, all other reportable segments reported excellent results in 1997 as compared to 1996.

           Realized Investment Gain

           Realized investment gain has been a recurring element in Berkshire's net earnings for many years. The amount -- recorded when investments are sold, other-than-temporarily impaired or in certain situations, as required by GAAP, when investments are marked-to-market with the corresponding gain or loss included in earnings -- may fluctuate significantly from period to period, with a meaningful effect upon Berkshire's consolidated net earnings. However, the amount of realized investment gain or loss for any given period has no predictive value, and variations in amount from period to period have no practical analytical value, particularly in view of the net unrealized price appreciation now existing in Berkshire's consolidated investment portfolio.

           The Consolidated Statement of Earnings for 1997 reflects a pre-tax realized investment gain of $1.1 billion ($704 million after-tax). A significant portion ($678 million pre-tax) of this gain resulted from Travelers Group Inc.'s acquisition of Salomon Inc. The Consolidated Statement of Earnings for 1996 reflects a pre-tax realized investment gain of $2.5 billion ($1.6 billion after-tax). Most of this gain resulted from The Walt Disney Company's acquisition of Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. See Note 5 to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional details regarding these transactions.

           While the effects of these transactions are material to the Consolidated Statements of Earnings, the completion of these acquisitions had a minimal impact on Berkshire's shareholders' equity. This is due to the fact that Berkshire's investments in Salomon Inc and Capital Cities had been carried in prior periods' consolidated financial statements at market value with unrealized gains, net of tax, reported as a separate component of shareholders' equity.

Market Risk Disclosures

           Berkshire's Consolidated Balance Sheet includes a substantial amount of assets and liabilities whose fair values are subject to market risks. Due to Berkshire's significant level of investments in equity securities, fluctuations in equity prices represent the largest market risk factor affecting Berkshire's consolidated financial position. The following sections address the significant market risks associated with Berkshire's business activities as of year end 1998 and 1997.

           Equity Price Risk

           Strategically, Berkshire strives to invest in businesses that possess excellent economics, with able and honest management and at sensible prices. Berkshire's management prefers to invest a meaningful amount in each investee. Accordingly, Berkshire's equity investments are concentrated in relatively few investees. At year-end 1998 and 1997, approximately 60% of the total fair value of investments in equity securities was concentrated in three investees.

           Berkshire's primary investment strategy contemplates that most equity investments will be held for very long periods of time. Thus, Berkshire management is not necessarily troubled by short term price volatility with respect to its investments provided that the underlying business, economic and management characteristics of the investees remain favorable. Berkshire maintains above average levels of shareholder capital to provide a margin of safety against short term equity price volatility.

           The carrying values of investments subject to equity price risks are based on quoted market prices or management's estimates of fair value as of the balance sheet dates. Market prices are subject to fluctuation and, consequently, the amount realized in the subsequent sale of an investment may significantly differ from the reported market value. Fluctuation in the market price of a security may result from perceived changes in the underlying economic characteristics of the investee, the relative price of alternative investments and general market conditions. Furthermore, amounts realized in the sale of a particular security may be affected by the relative quantity of the security being sold.

           In addition to its equity investments, Berkshire's obligations with respect to the 1% Senior Exchangeable Notes are subject to equity price risks. See Note 9 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for information regarding the Exchange Notes. As of year-end 1998 and 1997, the market price of Citigroup common stock far exceeded the current exchange price of the Exchange Notes. Therefore, the fair values of the Exchange Notes are primarily subject to equity price risk.

           The table below summarizes Berkshire's equity price risks as of December 31, 1998 and 1997 and shows the effects of a hypothetical 30% increase and a 30% decrease in market prices as of those dates. The selected hypothetical change does not reflect what could be considered the best or worst case scenarios. Indeed, results could be far worse due both to the nature of equity markets and the aforementioned concentrations existing in Berkshire's investment portfolio.

-- (dollars in millions) --

 

 

 

Estimated

Hypothetical

 

 

 

Fair Value after

Percentage

 

 

Hypothetical

Hypothetical

Increase (Decrease) in

 

Fair Value

Price Change

Change in Prices

Shareholders' Equity

As of December 31, 1998

 

 

 

 

 

Equity securities * . . . . . . . . .

$38,476

30% increase

$50,019

 

12.8

 

 

30% decrease

26,933

 

(12.8)

1% Senior Exchangeable Notes

489

30% increase

636

 

**

 

 

30% decrease

342

 

**

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 1997

 

 

 

 

 

Equity securities * . . . . . . . . .

$37,528

30% increase

$48,786

 

22.9

 

 

30% decrease

26,270

 

(22.9)

1% Senior Exchangeable Notes

780

30% increase

1,014

 

**

 

 

30% decrease

546

 

**

** Includes redeemable convertible preferred shares of investees in which the market prices of the common stock of the investees significantly exceeded the related conversion prices.
** Less than 1%

           Interest Rate Risk

           This section discusses interest rate risks associated with Berkshire's financial assets and liabilities, other than those of its finance and financial products businesses, which are discussed later. Berkshire's management prefers to invest in equity securities or to acquire entire businesses based upon the principles discussed in the preceding section on equity price risk. When unable to do so, management may alternatively invest in bonds or other interest rate sensitive instruments. Berkshire's strategy is to acquire securities that are attractively priced in relation to the perceived credit risk. Management recognizes and accepts that losses may occur. The Company has historically utilized a modest level of corporate borrowings and debt. Further, Berkshire strives to maintain the highest credit ratings so that the cost of debt is minimized. The Company does not actively utilize stand-alone derivatives to manage interest rate risks.

           The fair values of Berkshire's fixed maturity investments and borrowings under investment agreements and other debt will fluctuate in response to changes in market interest rates. Increases and decreases in prevailing interest rates generally translate into decreases and increases in fair values of those instruments. Additionally, fair values of interest rate sensitive instruments may be affected by the credit worthiness of the issuer, prepayment options, relative values of alternative investments, the liquidity of the instrument and other general market conditions.

           The table below summarizes the estimated effects of hypothetical increases and decreases in interest rates on assets and liabilities that are subject to interest rate risk. It is assumed that the changes occur immediately and uniformly to each category of instrument containing interest rate risks. The hypothetical changes in market interest rates do not reflect what could be deemed best or worst case scenarios. The hypothetical fair values are based upon the same prepayment assumptions utilized in computing fair values at year-end 1998 and 1997. Significant variations in market interest rates could produce changes in the timing of repayments due to prepayment options available. For these reasons, actual results might differ from those reflected in the table which follows.

-- (dollars in millions) --

 

 

Hypothetical

Estimated

 

 

Change in

Fair Value after

 

 

Interest Rate

Hypothetical Change

 

Fair Value

(bp=basis points)

in Interest Rate

As of December 31, 1998

 

 

 

Investments in securities with fixed maturities(1) . .

$20,891

100 bp decrease

$21,774

 

 

100 bp increase

19,974

 

 

200 bp increase

19,093

 

 

300 bp increase

18,130

Borrowings under investment agreements and other

debt(2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1,986

100 bp decrease

2,095

 

 

100 bp increase

1,865

 

 

200 bp increase

1,768

 

 

300 bp increase

1,681

As of December 31, 1997

 

 

 

Investments in securities with fixed maturities(1) . .

9,018

100 bp decrease

10,283

 

 

100 bp increase

7,857

 

 

200 bp increase

7,074

 

 

300 bp increase

6,416

Borrowings under investment agreements and other

 

 

 

debt(2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1,482

100 bp decrease

1,535

 

 

100 bp increase

1,410

 

 

200 bp increase

1,354

 

 

300 bp increase

1,303

(1) Excludes redeemable convertible preferred stocks (See Equity Price Risk)
(2) Excludes 1% Senior Exchangeable Notes (See Equity Price Risk)

           Financial Products Risk

           The finance and financial products operations are subject to market risk principally through General Re Financial Products ("GRFP"). GRFP monitors its market risk on a daily basis across all swap and option products by calculating the effect on operating results of potential changes in market variables over a one week period, based on historical market volatility, correlation data and informed judgment. This evaluation is done on an individual trading book basis, against limits set by individual book, to a 95% probability level. GRFP sets market risk limits for each type of risk, and for an aggregate measure of risk, based on a 99% probability that movements in market rates will not affect the results from operations in excess of the risk limit over a one week period. GRFP's weekly aggregate market risk limit is $15 million. Risk is measured primarily by Monte Carlo simulations to obtain the required degree of confidence. In addition to these daily and weekly assessments of risk, GRFP prepares periodic stress tests to assess its exposure to extreme movements in various market risk factors.

           The table below shows the highest, lowest and average value at risk, as calculated using the above methodology, by broad category of market risk to which GRFP is exposed.

-- (dollars in millions) --

 

 

Foreign

 

 

 

Interest Rate

Exchange Rate

Equity

All Risks

Highest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$9

$7

$8

$13

Lowest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5

2

2

6

Average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7

4

5

9

           GRFP evaluates and records a fair-value adjustment to recognize counterparty credit exposure and future costs associated with administering each contract. The expected credit exposure for each trade is initially established on the trade date and is determined through the use of a proprietary credit exposure model that is based on historical default probabilities, market volatilities and, if applicable, the legal right of setoff. These exposures are continually monitored and adjusted due to changes in the credit quality of the counterparty, changes in interest and currency rates or changes in other factors affecting credit exposure. Since inception, GRFP has not experienced any credit losses.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

           Berkshire's Consolidated Balance Sheet as of December 31, 1998, reflects continuing capital strength. In the past three years, Berkshire shareholders' equity has increased from approximately $16.7 billion at December 31, 1995, to approximately $57.4 billion at December 31, 1998. In that three-year period, realized and unrealized securities gains increased equity capital by approximately $13.2 billion, and reinvested earnings, other than realized securities gains, were about $3.4 billion.

Year 2000 Issue

           Many computer systems in use today may be unable to correctly process data or may not operate at all after December 31, 1999 because those systems recognize the year within a date only by the last two digits. Some computer programs may interpret the year "00" as 1900, instead of as 2000, causing errors in calculations or the value "00" may be considered invalid by the computer program, causing the system to fail. Year 2000 issues affect: (1) Information Technology (IT) utilized in the Company's widely diversified business information systems, including mainframe and client server hardware and software applications, (2) non-IT systems utilized by the Company, such as communications, facilities management, and manufacturing and service equipment containing embedded computer chips, and (3) IT and non-IT systems of significant customers, suppliers, business partners and equity investees.

           Berkshire and its subsidiaries could be adversely affected if Year 2000 issues are not resolved by Berkshire or its significant customers, suppliers, business partners or equity investees before the Year 2000. Possible adverse consequences include but are not limited to: (1) the inability to obtain products or services used in business operations, (2) the inability to transact business with key customers, (3) the inability to execute transactions through the financial markets, (4) the inability to manufacture or deliver goods or services sold to customers, (5) the decline in economic value of one or more of Berkshire's significant equity investees and (6) the occurrence of Year 2000 related losses under property and casualty insurance and reinsurance contracts entered into by subsidiaries. Berkshire's management believes that at least some minor disruptions due to Year 2000 issues will occur. On a worst case basis, if Berkshire, one or more of its significant business partners, equity investees or key governmental bodies are unable to implement timely and effective solutions to the Year 2000 issues, Berkshire could suffer material adverse effects. The financial impact of such effects cannot currently be estimated.

           Although Berkshire's business operations are diverse, they all rely on computers to conduct daily business activities. Because of the diversity of those operations, Year 2000 issues are independently managed at each of the Company's operating units. Berkshire and its subsidiaries have been working on Year 2000 readiness issues in varying degrees for several years.

           Generally, the stages involved in managing Year 2000 issues include (a) identifying the IT and non-IT systems that are non-compliant, (b) formulating strategies to remedying the problems, (c) making the changes necessary through purchasing compliant systems or fixing existing systems, (d) testing the changes and (e) developing contingency plans. The identification and formulation stages are nearly complete at all significant operating units. Many systems have been purchased, upgraded or corrected to make them Year 2000 compliant. In certain instances the Company has obtained certifications of Year 2000 compliance from the manufacturers of systems used by the Company. Management expects that by the end of 1999, all critical systems that are not currently Year 2000 compliant will be corrected or replaced.

           The Company has begun the testing of several systems that are believed to be Year 2000 compliant. Significant levels of testing will continue throughout 1999. In addition, Berkshire has contacted a large number of its business partners to obtain information regarding their own progress on Year 2000 issues. While all business partners have not fully completed their own Year 2000 projects, Berkshire is currently not aware of any significant business partner whose Year 2000 issues will not be resolved in a timely manner. However, there is no assurance that significant Year 2000 related problems will not ultimately arise with its business partners.

           Berkshire and its subsidiaries expect to ultimately incur about $60 million in identification, remediation and testing of Year 2000 issues. Approximately $40 million of this amount was incurred as of December 31, 1998. Year 2000 related costs are expensed as incurred. The Company does not believe that any significant IT projects have been delayed due to Year 2000 efforts.

           Berkshire and its subsidiaries have begun consideration of contingency plans to deal with certain Year 2000 issues in the event that remediation efforts are unsuccessful. Such plans will be more fully developed in 1999 to address specific areas of need.

Forward-Looking Statements

           Investors are cautioned that certain statements contained in this document, including but not limited to those under the caption Year 2000 Issues as well as some statements by the Company in periodic press releases and some oral statements of Company officials during presentations about the Company, are "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the "Act"). Forward-looking statements include statements which are predictive in nature, which depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, which include words such as "expects", "anticipates", "intends", "plans", "believes", "estimates", or similar expressions. In addition, any statements concerning future financial performance (including future revenues, earnings or growth rates), ongoing business strategies or prospects, and possible future Company actions, which may be provided by management are also forward-looking statements as defined by the Act. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and projections about future events and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions about the Company, economic and market factors and the industries in which the Company does business, among other things. These statements are not guaranties of future performance and the Company has no specific intention to update these statements.

           Actual events and results may differ materially from those expressed or forecasted in forward-looking statements due to a number of factors. The principal important risk factors that could cause the Company's actual performance and future events and actions to differ materially from such forward-looking statements, include, but are not limited to, changes in market prices of Berkshire's significant equity investees, the ability of the Company and its significant business partners and equity investees to successfully implement timely Year 2000 solutions, the occurrence of one or more catastrophic events, such as an earthquake or hurricane that causes losses insured by Berkshire's insurance subsidiaries, changes in insurance laws or regulations, changes in Federal income tax laws, and changes in general economic and market factors that affect the prices of securities or the industries in which Berkshire and its affiliates do business, especially those affecting the property and casualty insurance industry.